The fewer new homes built, the better. Those crazy greedy Arizona homebuilders had a starring role in the boom and bust in Arizona home prices.

The Greater Phoenix panel confirmed their second quarter projection that 2009 should be the bottom of the cycle for single-family permits, declining to about 7,800 units, which is down from about 12,600 last year. For next year, however, the panel forecasts that permits will increase more than 40 percent, totaling about 11,200…

… the panel forecasts that 2011 will produce an additional 45 percent increase in permits, more than 16,200 units. While this is a big increase in percentage terms, 2011 permits will reach only about 25 percent of the previous peak and less than half of the demographic demand during times of normal population flows.