History of REO and Short Sales in metro Phoenix

By John Wake

About that crazy idea mentioned…

If a home buyer who puts less than 20% down is required to buy mortgage insurance for the lender, shouldn’t we also require lenders who make loans with less than 20% down to buy mortgage insurance for the primary-home buyer to compensate them if their house’s value falls more than 20%?

Latest from John

Now on my Substack for free, ”2 Reasons House Prices Will Start Falling Sooner Than Expected”.

What a great son Michael Orr is!

I can’t update my charts until later this week because Michael Orr of The Cromford Report has personal business to take care of.

He moved back home to England a few/several years ago to take care of his aging parents and, in addition, kept updating the data and running The Cromford Report from there. His mother passed last year but apparently, because of Covid, they delayed her memorial until now.

Michael, I’m so sorry for your loss.

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Year to date (Jan-Jun), new-build, single-family house sales are up 25% in Pinal County and down 10% in Maricopa County compared to 2021 (Jan-Jun).

Everyone who complained about not enough supply must be very happy for Pinal County.

I'm not. It takes off right at the wrong time
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 14, 2022

Number of Houses for Sale in Phoenix MLS
2022 vs. 2005 (partial year) pic.twitter.com/9jecGLznjl
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 8, 2022

Mike DelPrete is always great.

A lot of fascinating stuff, like that part about the increase in exclusive listings by some power players.

40% of Opendoor sales in Austin recently were exclusive listings, so they weren't in the MLS.https://t.co/E6UG160D4w
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 8, 2022

https://t.co/yRHWLiaszc
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 8, 2022

"With 528,000 net new jobs… employment now slightly above its pre-Covid level, the July jobs report was absolutely gobsmacking… unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, tying a 52-year low… gives the Fed the green light to keep rapidly hiking rates"https://t.co/n9yuUyIaqw
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 9, 2022

This good news is bad for real estate because it means the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, and no sector is more sensitive to interest rates than housing.

Robert Shiller says a 10% nominal house price decline through 2024 is possible. pic.twitter.com/Jzr67ERFiY
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 9, 2022

"For the fourth time since 1988, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield has moved below 0.0%."https://t.co/C9EVwi3JtV pic.twitter.com/gB8hpqTLLM
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 11, 2022

Read the whole thing. Great piece!
2016 https://t.co/vLGRQUjJq1
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 11, 2022

Sedona will pay homeowners up to $10K to not use homes as short-term rentals.https://t.co/J1tjgQ8sqB
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 11, 2022

"In 2000, 37 percent of state residents aged 65 to 74 owned their homes outright. In the years just before the pandemic, 2015-2019 that number had fallen to just 30 percent."

A 100 years ago, ~2/3rds of U.S. home owners owned their houses free & clear. Much higher for seniors.
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 11, 2022

He makes a convincing and clear argument for why we're going to go through a period of prolong, persistent, and high inflation.

That wouldn't be good for mortgage rates & real estate.

The Fed will sacrifice housing & family wealth to fight inflation.https://t.co/lx9MYCqK0s
— John Wake (@JohnWake) August 12, 2022

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Published on August 14, 2022