If that trend continues, by December…

John Wake’s Latest

Had my first article in Barron’s last week, This Housing Market Won’t Be Like Last Time. History Still Has Lessons. My contact at Barron’s said it was #1 on their site that morning!

And here’s my latest in Forbes.com, ”2 Reasons House Prices Will Start Falling Sooner Than Expected.

Prices Down 4.6% in 2 Months

IF prices continue falling at around $12,000 per month (not impossible), by December the median single-family house price would be around $430,000, or $60,000 less than July and $85,000 less than the peak in May.

It’s Not Impossible

House prices in Toronto are down 13% in 4 months.

This Good News is Bad News

The key, of course, to what happens to house prices is mortgage interest rates but the bad news is the good news about unemployment. The unemployment rate is back down to 3.5% which means the Fed will probably keep interest rates higher for longer.

July Sales Tank

The number of single-family houses sold in July was down 36% from July 2021 and down 45% from July 2020.

Do You Want Stable House Price Inflation?

Saw this poll done in Britain. Thought it was a cool idea so…

… I ran a Twitter poll asking the same question. It’s only a Twitter poll but it’s a very interesting result.

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.