(See recent posts on Phoenix Case-Shiller Home Price Index.)

Home prices fell 3.4% from September to October according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for Phoenix, Arizona.

From the peak in June 2006 until October 2008, residential real estate prices in Phoenix have fallen 41%.

Let’s say that another way; Phoenix homes were 68% more expensive in June 2006.

We probably won’t see prices of Phoenix homes strengthen until February or March (and those Case-Shiller numbers won’t be published until 2 months later). I’m guessing that by June there will be a lot of buzz about Phoenix home prices having bottomed out reflecting strong Spring sales and, in fact, that may be true in some areas of metropolitan Phoenix.

Let’s assume that Phoenix home prices continue to fall at about 3% per month in November, December and January (reflecting homes that went under contract October – December). What the heck, let’s just say prices fall (have already fallen, really) 10% more. If that happens (very likely), Phoenix home prices in January 2009 would be similar to Phoenix home prices in mid-2003, 5.5 years earlier. (This is entirely consistent with the more up-to-date zip code graphs of home prices on this web site.)

If Phoenix home prices were to continue to fall by about 3% per month (which I don’t expect but you never know), by the Fall of 2009, Phoenix home prices would be equivalent to prices in January 2000.

As always, the Case-Shiller index obscures the large differences within metro Phoenix sub-markets. This web site, Arizona Real Estate Notebook, is the best I’ve seen for allowing you to look at real estate trends by zip code and to tease out trends within metropolitan Phoenix.

Phoenix Home Price Index

case shiller housing index for phoenix and scottsdale arizona

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.