Updated the Long-Term Monthly Graphs
Metro Phoenix median real, inflation-adjusted home price of all homes sold via the MLS in April
Phoenix Real Median Price
- Up 2% from February
- Down 14% from the peak in May 2022
- Up 7% from the peak in 2006
Home Sales are as low as they were in 2007.
But New Listings are a fraction of what they were in 2007 so the market is currently in a delicate balance!
Mike Orr at The Cromford Report thinks,
“Our tentative expectation is that prices will remain roughly flat (or dip slightly) from now until October and then rise again during the fourth quarter, as long as nothing dramatic occurs to change our assumptions.“
I think prices will fall this summer, the question is will it be a little or a lot?
If we go into a recession by the end of the summer, we would have a very different market than today.
Demand is already incredibly soft, if demand falls further for any reason (recession, higher rates), prices will fall.
With such soft demand, if the number of houses hitting the market increases for any reason (recession, Airbnb bust), prices will fall.
And if we do get a recession, Phoenix house prices will continue to fall this fall.
1. Phoenix/Scottsdale, Arizona
With the largest YOY supply increase in the country, Phoenix/Scottsdale, Arizona earned the top spot.
Have we reached “Peak Airbnb” in Phoenix? Now that the tourist season is over, will some Airbnb landlords start selling? Or will some convert theirs into long-term rentals putting some downward pressure on rents?
Watch Out For…
Wholesalers. The Ugly Truth Behind “We Buy Ugly Houses” – ProPublica
Syndicators. A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors – Wall Street Journal
New Home Builders!
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
- Phoenix Weekly Market Updates 2023
- Phoenix Weekly Market Graph (only)
- Long-term Phoenix real estate market graphs