I think May will be the peak month for prices this year like it was last year.
The number of single-family houses that went under contract to buyers last week was down 18% from 4 weeks earlier, and during the summer we have a lot fewer buyers of expensive, luxury houses.
The high season is over. Sales will go down, for sure. The question is, “What happens to supply?”.
The number of homes for sale will start increasing again any week now, but will it increase fast or slow? We should know in a month.
This Tweet of mine from a week ago kinda went viral and got 140K views.
And this Tweet of mine from last week also kinda went viral with 170K views!
The Cromford Report
The Cromford Report pointed out something about the Case-Shiller data that I hadn’t noticed.
All Case-Shiller cities and USA prices increased from February to March.
- Phoenix was up the least, 0.5%
- USA was up 1.3%
- San Francisco was up the most, 3.0%!
Suggests the Phoenix real estate market isn’t as strong as those other markets.
Also, The Cromford Report pointed this out.
“The new home sales count was up 10.7% from May 2022 and up 25.7% from April 2023.”
I bet we have a LOT of new houses in the pipeline. That should add to the supply of houses for sale for several months. I wonder when the pipeline of new houses will peak. Next autumn? Next winter?
FHA Proposes a Zero-Interest Mortgage!
“The Payment Supplement Partial Claim allows homeowners experiencing a hardship who are unable to obtain a significant payment reduction with other loss mitigation options to keep their existing interest rate and reduce their monthly payment temporarily using funds from the FHA Partial Claim, which is a subordinate zero interest lien. The homeowners then pay FHA back when they sell their home or refinance.” – HUD
Another way this isn’t like last time.
Did you know Maricopa County had over 50,000 trustee deed sales of homes in 2010? That will never happen again.
Scammers Forge Purchase Documents then Resell Your House!
“With the new system, homeowners can opt to receive alerts whenever a document is recorded that mentions their name” – Arizona Republic
Maricopa County will battle an increase in fraud schemes in which homes are sold out from under owners.
What a nightmare that must be for the real owners and, especially for the buyers the scammers sell the house to.
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.