I got a call from a reader yesterday about the Scottsdale real estate market. She was worried that home prices might be weakening in her area. Also, she had watched this video of mine where I stumbled onto some erratic graphs for the Scottsdale real estate market.
Before I checked out the situation in her community, I reviewed the Scottsdale real estate market as a whole and that’s what I’m showing you here.
Click any of the charts to enlarge them.
Scottsdale Price per Square Foot Weird
Click images to enlarge.
The price per square foot in Scottsdale increased sharply from October to January but then fell sharply in February 2016. What’s going on? Is February an anomaly or a trend?
Scottsdale home sales strong
The number of homes sold in Scottsdale in February were up 3% compared to February 2015. So the number of home sales is fine.
Number of homes listed for sale up 14% in Scottsdale
That inventory change could be causing some of the market weirdness.
Inventory up 21% in far North Scottsdale
Okay, home sales are up a bit in Scottsdale but the supply of homes for sale is up a lot more, especially in far north Scottsdale in zip codes 85266 and 85262.
New listings hitting the market up 24% in Scottsdale in February
There’s the culprit! More people are putting their homes up for sale in Scottsdale this year. But was February a fluke or a trend?
Number of new listings in early March double last year!
It’s only 4 days so I assume it’s a fluke but, Yikes!, double is a big number.
I’m going to assume it reflects a longer term trend this year of more people in Scottsdale deciding to put their homes up for sale.
Conclusions
It’s still early in the high season. I’ll have a much better idea of what the 2016 Scottsdale real estate market is going to look like in a month.
I had assumed that Scottsdale home prices would increase strongly in 2016 – as strong or stronger than in 2015.
But if the number of homes hitting the market continues at the February pace, then Scottsdale home price appreciation won’t be as high in 2016 as it was in 2015.
I don’t know exactly why the new listings are increasing so much. If you have a theory, please leave a comment.
I don’t think the rest of the Phoenix real estate market is seeing this but I was only diving into the Scottsdale market today.
Stay tuned.
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3 Responses to Scottsdale real estate market changing
This is simple. The housing market is being artificially levitate by FED policy and wall strest. This is not, and has never been a story about organic growth from mom and pops buying homes. What it is about is letting hot money from wall street (@ ZERO interest), international cash buyers, and investors all actI’ve in the largest ponzi scheme and wealth distribution in history. Add to that having false Stats put out by corrupt bodies that aggressively surpress how banks refuse to forclose on homes. That’s called rigged. China’s economy is crumbling so there is a very small window for that hot money to help pro up most of the large cities housing markets. Our economy had flake a long time ago. Corporations lose mad quantities of money, but back shares to prop up their stock, and at the same to be are laying off mad quantities of the workforce. The confluence of a sick china market, sick US market, and average Joes and James being priced or of the market, you will VERY SOON have A SICK HOUSING MARKET. If you think I’m of my rocket just ignore false charts and stats and look at it logically and with an unbiased mind. Once corpse earnings are released this quarter watch how the business channels react. Even they will not see this as good. That means all the hot money will begin to head to the exits. I think it’s already happening. All you have to look at is oil. No one thought it would get to this low point. It will go much lower. As oil goes so does the economy, and thus an implosion in the housing market. Something to think about other that just ready stats and believing false charts
John, well, I hate to post right after an absolute raving tin foil hat wearing idiot, like above, but here goes!
I moved from 85250 to 85282 in December. Found a home being poorly sold, by a moronic owner, bought it way under its market price and remodeled it. I had been talking with my business partner, about where the best places to invest in the valley would likely be, and with the thousands of jobs coming into Tempe, and the fact that I get more $ for rent in Tempe on the same model home than I do in scottsdale, I thought, why not look in Tempe, and then perhaps sell the scottsdale home for a lot more money? So here I am. BUT, despite your charts above, I believe my 85250 home will be worth more in 2.5 years, so I rented it out, with the idea to sell it in 2.5 years, thus still meeting the “lived in it for 2 of the last 5” rule, and keeping all of my gains except depreciation recapture as tax free income. So, your article scared me!
Looking at some data: single family large homes in 85250, a couple weeks back, I saw 2.5 months inventory. In 85282, I see 1.5 months inventory. Considering we are coming out of the slow season for sales, both of those numbers actually look pretty good! I would predict price increases all this year on that basis, for both of those areas, with Tempe being actually quite hard for someone to find a home that they like, and until the data changes, Tempe particularly is likely to see very good price increases. The rental market in Tempe is doing great too, so its a win/win/win for me at this point…
So, I’ll recheck the numbers in the summer. As always, love your analytic looks at the market!
Great to hear from you Roberto! I’m glad that 85282 house turned out so well for you!
It looked like the supply problem was in North Scottsdale (could be related to luxury homes and stock market machinations) while South Scottsdale was still very strong. There wasn’t a clean dividing line between North and South (Indian Bend? Shea?) in this case so I didn’t mention it.
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