(“MLS Listings” are measured at one point in time, usually the 15th day of the current month. “Median Price” of homes sold and the total number of home “MLS Sales” are for the entire preceding month.)
Price (green line)
The median price in metro Phoenix of single family homes sold via the MLS rose $5,500 in September to $135,500.
The median home price in metropolitan Phoenix bottomed out in April at $118,000 and has risen since then by $17,500 or 15%.
The median home price usually starts to fade seasonally in September so going against the seasonal trend and having such a strong median price increase ($5,500) is bullish for Arizona residential real estate. We haven’t seen a median price increase from August to September since 2005.
Sales (blue line)
Although home sales didn’t go opposite the seasonal trend as happened with the median sale price, the seasonal downward trend was weak this September.
Single family home sales in metro Phoenix AZ barely fell in September. Even in the boom year of 2004 the number of homes sold fell a lot more between August and September (home sales down about 300 homes) than this year (home sales down about 100 homes).
Home sales in September 2009 were 24% higher than the number of home sold in September 2008.
Listings (red line)
The number of single family detached homes listed for sale increased by over 200 homes in September but that is an unsually small increase for a September.
The inventory of single family homes listed for sale in September was in the normal range with the equivalent of a 4-month supply.
A year ago, in September 2008, we had a 8-month inventory. The inventory peaked at over 17 months in November 2007. Now it’s just 4 months.
Be aware that the supply situation varies tremendously within metro Phoenix depending on the geographic location and the price range of the homes you are looking at.
The market clearly bottomed out last spring. Prices will likely retreat between now and January but I doubt the median home price will ever hit $118,000 again even with another wave of foreclosures coming next year.