- Number of homes sold in January was down 12% versus January 2018
- Home prices were up 7% versus January 2018
Phoenix Homes Sold Down 12%
The year-over-year slowdown in home sales in metro Phoenix continued in January 2019. Home sales were down 12% compared to January 2018 and the number of homes sold was the lowest since January 2016, 3 years ago.
Home sales in March will likely be down around 10% because the number of homes currently under contract in the Phoenix MLS is down 10% from a year ago at this time.
Although home sales are off to a weakish start in 2019, keep in mind that 2018 was a strong year for home sales. So far in 2019, Phoenix home sales are running below 2018 and 2017 but above 2016 and 2015.
Phoenix Home Prices Up 7%
The median sale price at $262,450 is 7% higher than last January.
Although home sales are down, there’s no sign that home price increases are slowing, at least not yet. The average price of those homes that are currently under contract (sales will be completed within a month or two)
Given the slower sales, I expect home price increases to be a lot smaller in 2019 than in 2018 but so far we haven’t seen Phoenix home price increases slow down.
Supply of Homes For Sale Increasing Slowly
Despite the slower home sales, prices aren’t under a lot of downward pressure because the number of single-family homes hitting the market is only up 4% and – more importantly – the total number of single-family homes for sale is only up 6% from January a year ago.
If the inventory of homes for sale continues to increase, it will eventually slow down home price increases but so far the increases in supply have been surprisingly small given the slow down in the number of homes sold.
March is Key
When March is strong, the rest of the year tends to be strong. When March is weak it’s usually a sign the rest of the year will be weak.
After the March data comes in, we’ll have a much better idea how the rest of 2019 will play out.
What are you seeing in your neighborhood? Let me know. Leave a comment.
5 Responses to Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance – Feb. 2019 Report
Hi John, I’m seeing prices increase in Gilbert, Mesa and North Phoenix. I have some rentals in these areas. The rents are also increasing substantially. I don’t know what will happen for the rest of the year, but pretty much every week in the PHX Business Journal there are one or more articles about companies relocating to AZ. As long as the PHX-metro area is seen as a lower cost alternative to Denver, Seattle, Portland and Slat Lake city I think we are in good shape. I am guessing we have a 4% – 6% rise in prices this year. Steve
I think with the mixture of the stock market coming back, interest rates being lower and people moving here from out of the state; the market will keep creeping up. A little frustrating though, because I want to buy some rentals and with these prices the numbers just don’t make sense. In 2014-2015 it seemed like it made sense to buy, rent, flip etc. Not so much now. They don’t seem to be building any starter homes either.
That sounds right to me.
Very Helpful and Informative Blog. I’m waiting for your new post.
You’re right! I need to update the graphs. Thanks for the reminder.
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