John Wake analyses the Phoenix real estate market using Phoenix MLS (Multiple Listing Service) data. The metro Phoenix MLS comes out with new data each month on the number of homes sold, the median price of the homes sold, the number of unsold homes listed for sale, and the number of new listings that hit the Phoenix market each month. See all past “Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance” reports on a single page.


See the interactive graphs HERE.

May 2014

Conclusions

  • INVENTORY. The inventory of homes listed for sale in metro Phoenix FINALLY leveled off in April and May. In a typical year, the inventory would fall from February through June but this year the inventory actually increased sharply in February and increased a bit in March instead of falling. That’s huge. I didn’t expect that. The strong home price increases in 2012 and the first half of 2013 apparently made home sellers a lot more enthusiastic about selling while the higher prices (and higher interest rates since last spring) made home buyers less enthusiastic about buying.
  • PRICES. The median home price in Metro Phoenix rose a bit in April to $190,000 (all homes), however, I know from looking at zip code data that the median price has fallen slightly in some zip codes over the last few months. The unexpectedly weak high season suggests a weak summer and fall for prices. I’m thinking this morning that metro Phoenix home prices will generally drift slightly lower during the second half of the year.

This would be a good time for banks to loosen their unnecessarily tight lending standards.

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