What’s my opinion/guess?

Right now I think December is the most likely bottom in prices in the Valley which will be reflected in the median closed price in January.

Secondarily, I think/guess December of 2007 would be the bottom. In this scenario, I would expect the price gains of the first half of 2007 to be lost in the second half by weaknesses caused by interest rates, a slumping economy or an economic shock of some kind.

Today, I’m most interested in what the median home price will be in November. If we see a strong fall in the median home price again from October to November like we did from September and October (down $5,000 or 2% in one month), that would suggest continued strong downward momentum on prices and would make a December 2007 bottom more likely.

If we see that the median home price in November is similar to October, that would suggest to me that December 2006 would likely be the bottom.

I reserve the right to change my opinion after lunch.

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