September 25, 2022

A Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall

My first article in Fortune! The Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall “The prices people expect tomorrow influence demand and supply today.” “The takeaway is that demand will continue to fall for many months–regardless of mortgage rates–because people are slowly lowering their expectations for future house price increases. Housing demand is falling along with the expectations for house price increases in the future.” Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS1,000 to 2,000 Square Feet Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS5,000+ Square Feet Quick Tweets Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of…

September 18, 2022

#1 Mystery In Current Phoenix Real Estate Market

Interactive Charts Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS Symmetrical Price Changes Top Tweets of the Week Also Phoenix’s Apartment Market is Cooling Off Fast Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

September 11, 2022

HUGE Number of Single-Family Houses for Sale from 1,000 to 2,000 Square Feet in Size in Phoenix

Number of Single-Family Houses Listed for Sale in Phoenix MLS … from 1,000 to 2,000 Square Feet in Size. Top Tweets of the Week Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

September 4, 2022

Phoenix House Prices Fell about $10,000 per Month for the Last 3 Months

Number of Single-Family Houses Listed for Sale in Phoenix MLS Top 10 Tweets of the Week This Tweet of mine kinda went viral. Will the increase in evictions put downward pressure on rents? Humble Brag Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

August 26, 2022

Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance – Number of Houses for Sale is Back to Normal

Twitter If you have any ideas about why the apartment market is slowing faster in Phoenix than in any other metro, leave a comment or email me. I’m trying to figure it out. Seems reasonable. New home sales have really slowed down. This includes apartments. Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version. Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above). This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

August 21, 2022

Phoenix Median Sold Price Fell 4.5% from June to July and is Forecast to Fall 1.9% in August

Check Out the Latest from the Brilliant Tom Ruff at The Information Market The Cromford Report Looking at all residential homes for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS, in a week or two, the number of houses for sale should match levels for the same week in 2015. The number of single-family, non-distressed houses for sale in the Phoenix MLS is leveling off but is 2.7 times the same week last year. Last time, the number of houses listed for sale in the Phoenix MLS skyrocketed BEFORE the Great Recession started. This time won’t be like last time but this shows the worst-case scenario. Twitter These 2 Tweets on the impact of buyers and…

August 14, 2022

History of REO and Short Sales in metro Phoenix

About that crazy idea mentioned… If a home buyer who puts less than 20% down is required to buy mortgage insurance for the lender, shouldn’t we also require lenders who make loans with less than 20% down to buy mortgage insurance for the primary-home buyer to compensate them if their house’s value falls more than 20%? Latest from John Now on my Substack for free, ”2 Reasons House Prices Will Start Falling Sooner Than Expected”. What a great son Michael Orr is! I can’t update my charts until later this week because Michael Orr of The Cromford Report has personal business to take care of. He moved back home to England…

August 7, 2022

Phoenix Median House Price Drops $12,000 per Month for 2 Months

If that trend continues, by December… John Wake’s Latest Had my first article in Barron’s last week, “This Housing Market Won’t Be Like Last Time. History Still Has Lessons.” My contact at Barron’s said it was #1 on their site that morning! And here’s my latest in Forbes.com, ”2 Reasons House Prices Will Start Falling Sooner Than Expected”. Prices Down 4.6% in 2 Months IF prices continue falling at around $12,000 per month (not impossible), by December the median single-family house price would be around $430,000, or $60,000 less than July and $85,000 less than the peak in May. It’s Not Impossible House prices in Toronto are down 13% in 4 months. This Good News is Bad News The key, of course, to what happens…

July 31, 2022

Is There Any Good News About the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

Phoenix Housing Market Update – July 31, 2022 Last week I mentioned that inflation could end up being good news for home buyers. “The only optimist thing I can think of is that inflation is your friend if you recently bought a house to live in, or plan to soon. If you have a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, inflation will lower your real, inflation-adjusted mortgage payments over time. Hopefully, your income will at least keep up with inflation. A 10% inflation rate during the first year of your mortgage, for example, would lower your real principal and interest mortgage payments by 10% for the next 29 years. Hope for longer inflation,…

July 24, 2022

Phoenix is #1 – “… so we see the biggest rate of decline probably in Phoenix.” – Ivy Zelman

Ivy Zelman might be the best real estate market analyst in the nation. She’s not always right but she usually is. Here’s a recent interview with her on CNBC. Phoenix Inventory of Houses for Sale The increase in the number of single-family, non-distressed houses for sale in the metro Phoenix MLS slowed down a little bit last week but it’s still increasing scary fast. The red line is 2022. The green line is 2019, pre-pandemic. Is There Any Good News? The only optimist thing I can think of is that inflation is your friend if you recently bought a house to live in, or plan to soon. If you have…